John Gallagher Realtor West Roxbury

Prospective Home Sellers and Buyers Retreated in August as Mortgage Rates Approached 6%
WRITTEN BY REDFIN



New listings fell 8% in August to their lowest level since May 2020. Prior to the onset of the pandemic, the last time so few homes hit the market was August 2012

Seasonally-adjusted new listings of homes for sale fell 8% from July to August to their lowest level since May 2020, when the housing market was paralyzed by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Prior to the pandemic, we hadn’t seen so few homes hit the market since November 2012.

Mortgage rates climbed from 5% at the beginning of August to 6% by the end of the month, pushing many homebuyers out of the market. This sharp decrease in demand gave the buyers who were left some additional negotiating power and softened home prices a bit, but caused many potential home sellers to hold off on listing. As a result, the market as a whole is relatively balanced between buyers and sellers, but there’s very little activity in terms of homes being listed and sold.

“When mortgage rates were below 3%, sales and home prices soared. The market was like a game of musical chairs with buyers vying for too few homes,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “As mortgage rates approached 6%, almost everyone left the party. Now the market is more like a middle school dance where a small number of buyers and sellers are pairing up during a slow song.”

While we may be in a housing recession, the slowdown in sales is not a sign of a bubble bursting, Fairweather went on to explain:

“The bottom line is that homeowners don’t need to sell in this environment. They locked in rock-bottom mortgage rates last year and are sitting on piles of equity. The jobs market remains very strong, so there’s little risk that mortgage delinquencies or foreclosures will rise significantly. It would take a severe—not soft—recession to send homeowners into distress. We will have to wait and see if the broader economy steers towards normalcy or recession in the upcoming months.”

National Highlights

Market Summary


August 2022


Month-Over-Month


Year-Over-Year

Median sale price


$406,900


-1.3%


7.1%

Homes sold, seasonally-adjusted


500,100


-1.7%


-19.5%

Pending sales, seasonally-adjusted


489,200


0.2%


-17.3%

New listings, seasonally-adjusted


534,322


-8.2%


-20.2%

All Homes for sale, seasonally-adjusted


1,524,400


-1.1%


2.7%

Median days on market


26


5


9

Months of supply


2


-0.2


0.6

Sold above list


37.6%


-9.6 pts†


-14.3 pts†

Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate


$417,800


-0.9%


18.2%

Average Sale-to-list


99.9%


-1.1 pts†


-1.7 pts†

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate


5.22%


-0.19 pp†


+2.38 pp†

† - “pp” = percentage-point change

Metro-Level Highlights

Competition

Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, MI and Rochester, NY were the fastest markets, with half of all homes pending sale in just 8 days. Albany, NY and Omaha, NE were the next fastest markets with 9 and 10 median days on market.
The most competitive market in August was Rochester, NY where 73.0% of homes sold above list price, followed by 72.4% in Buffalo, NY, 65.8% in Newark, NJ, 65.2% in Hartford, CT, and 62.8% in Worcester, MA.
Prices

Cape Coral, FL had the nation's highest price growth, rising 20.6% since last year to $392,000. Knoxville, TN had the second highest growth at 20% year-over-year price growth, followed by Tampa, FL (19.7%), North Port, FL (19.5%), and West Palm Beach, FL (19.2%).
4 metros saw year-over-year price declines in August including San Francisco (-7.3%), Oakland, CA (-3.2%), Baton Rouge, LA (-1.1%), and Honolulu (-0.6%).
Sales

No metro areas had year-over-year sales growth in August. The smallest declines were in Dayton, OH, down 1.4%, followed by Greenville, SC, down 2.7%. Rochester, NY rounded out the top three with sales down 3.7% from a year ago.
Las Vegas saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 37.2%. Home sales in San Jose, CA and Phoenix declined by 33.8% and 31.9%, respectively.
Inventory

North Port, FL had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 51.2% year over year, followed by Austin, TX (39.5%) and Nashville, TN (38.0%).
Allentown, PA had the largest decrease in overall active listings, falling 44.5% since last August. Bridgeport, CT (-29.7%), Hartford, CT (-27.0%), and Montgomery County, PA (-26.8%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
To view the full report, including charts, metro-level data and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/august-housing-market-slowed-by-high-mortgage-rates/

Prospective Home Sellers and Buyers Retreated as Mortgage Rates Approached 6% New listings fell 8% in August to their lowest level since May 2020. Before that, the last time so few homes hit the market was August 2012.

What If You’re Priced Out of Buying a Home?
WRITTEN BY ASHLEY SUTPHIN


First-time homebuyers are facing a serious problem when it comes to buying a house. While the acceleration may be cooling somewhat, there are still record-breaking rises in home prices. Recent data shows for the first time in the U.S., median home prices surpassed $400,000.

Several factors are likely to continue this trend. There are a lot of motivated buyers, limited housing supply and low mortgage rates. Inflation is pushing prices up for essentially everything, including homes. Low mortgage rates allow buyers to buy more than they would be able to ordinarily, so they can get involved in heated bidding wars.

Sellers are also staying put because they don’t want to jump into a highly competitive buying market, limiting the supply of available homes even more.

Homebuilders can’t get the materials they need, and even if they can, there’s a labor shortage.

Where does this leave first-time buyers or any buyer?

What Does It Mean to Be Priced Out?
If you’re priced out in the real estate market, it means that you can’t afford even an entry-level home. There are often a number of factors that can lead first-time buyers to be priced out, many of which are converging with one another right now.

If you’re trying to buy a house right now, you probably notice the down payment you worked hard to save isn’t going as far as you planned. If you saved 20% of the expected price you prepared to pay for a house, that might no longer be sufficient.

So, what can you do?

You might think automatically you should keep renting, but rent prices are going up because of inflation as well, while wages aren’t keeping up, so this isn’t the ideal option.

There are a few things you can do, and none of them might feel ideal, but your options are limited when you’re priced out.

Save More
If you live in a market that’s not affordable for you right now, you may need to keep renting and adding to your savings. This does also allow you to wait out the market somewhat. You may need to be patient because it could be a couple of years before you’re able to re-enter the marketing successfully.

As you’re thinking about what you can afford, it’s better to base it on your monthly expenses rather than the sales price.

If you are setting more money aside and you’re going to try and wait out the market a bit, don’t just put it in a standard savings account. You may need to put at least some of your savings into riskier but more high-earning options like stocks.

Change Your Expectations
Another option you have available when you’re otherwise priced out of the market is to change your expectations. With limited inventory and all the other factors going on in the market right now, you may have to give up a few things on your wish list, or maybe more than a few.

You could end up buying a fixer-upper that’s more in line with your budget.

For first-time buyers, being humble is key to getting a home in the current environment.

Broaden Your Home Search Geographically
Just like you might need to give up on some of your wish list as far as home features, you might also want to broaden the area where you’re looking geographically. There can be considerable differences in the price of homes from one neighborhood to the next or one suburb to the other.

Many people aren’t just moving out of urban areas to be able to afford a home—they’re changing cities altogether. For example, residents of expensive locations like New York and San Francisco are moving to more affordable cities like Austin and Atlanta.

Hire a Great Real Estate Agent
Finally, if you don’t already have a great real estate agent on your side, it would be nearly impossible to navigate the current market as a first-time buyer without getting one. Even if you can find a home you’re able to afford, you may be facing stiff competition.

Real estate professionals know about properties before they go on the market, so you’ll have an edge there. They’ll also be able to help you understand your local market so you can adjust your expectations as needed.

A real estate pro can negotiate on your behalf and cut some of the stress out of the experience for you.

It’s not an easy time to buy a home, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. You might wait it out, or you could shift your approach and strategy a bit.