Center for Climate Integrity

“Civilization could prove a fragile thing.”

A confidential October 1989 Shell publication titled “SCENARIOS 1989 – 2010” outlines a high-emissions “global mercantilism” scenario in which average global temperatures rise by “considerably more” than 1.5°C.

“Perhaps those in industrial countries could cope with a rise in sea level (the Dutch example) but for poor countries such defences are not possible. The potential refugee problem in GLOBAL MERCANTILISM could be unprecedented. Africans would push into Europe, Chinese into the Soviet Union, Latins into the United States, Indonesians into Australia. Boundaries would count for little – overwhelmed by the numbers. Conflicts would abound. Civilisation could prove a fragile thing,” the report warned.

Despite privately acknowledging the dangers of using its products as intended, Shell chose to publicly sowed doubt about the science and fight efforts to regulate its pollution.

Big Oil corporations must be held accountable for the damages their climate lies have caused, in five exhibits.

In 1965, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, Big Oil’s top trade group, told members that burning fossil fuels “could cause marked changes in climate” and that “time is running out” to “save the world’s peoples.”

For millions of Americans, time has now run out. As of March 2026, the U.S. has sustained 431 weather and climate disasters where overall damages reached or exceeded $1 billion—with a total cost exceeding $3.1 trillion. Much of the financial burden is landing on taxpayers and disproportionately affecting our nation’s most vulnerable residents.