Wikistrat

💡 Washington assumes a weak Iran deal pushes Saudi Arabia toward normalization with Israel.

❌ Eight leading Gulf experts we surveyed disagree.

A few other findings from our recent expert panel:

➡️ 7 of 8: The UAE will not quietly accept a deal leaving Iran with de facto control of the Strait of .

➡️ 8 of 8: If Iran refuses ballistic missile limits, the Gulf states escalate militarily within three years. No dissenters.

➡️ Sharpest split on the panel: whether Saudi Arabia pursues nuclear weapons within a decade. Three call it near-certain. Two call it unlikely.

Negotiators are set to meet again this weekend, and President Trump told Axios on Friday he expects a deal "in the next day or two."

Whatever Washington and Tehran sign will set Gulf security through the 2030s, and the assumptions behind U.S. policy may not hold up against what the region is actually planning.

Full report in the comments 👇

For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars.

Iran's retaliatory strikes shattered that premise in a matter of hours.

On March 12, we invited Dr. Neil Quilliam (Chatham House) to examine how the GCC is absorbing the shock and what the post-conflict landscape means for the region's security, economy, and diplomatic future.

Watch the full recording or read the key insights here:

Expert Analysis: The War in Iran and the Future of the Gulf For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars. Two weeks of Iranian strikes have shattered that narrative. In this Wikistrat analysis, Dr. Neil Quilliam examines how the GCC is absorbing the shock and what the post conflict landscape mea...