Diamondback Real Estate

📊 Big Shift in the Housing Market Coming

For the past 3 years, homeowners with ultra-low sub-3% mortgages have been reluctant to sell, and who could blame them? Trading in a 3% rate for 6%+ felt impossible.

But look at this chart 👇. By 2025, the number of mortgages with 6%+ rates is set to surpass sub-3% mortgages.

Here’s why this matters:

Over time, fewer homeowners will be “locked in” by their old rates.

Life doesn’t wait. Families grow, jobs change, financial needs evolve. Many have already given up their 3% mortgages to move.

As interest rates trend down, sellers sitting on the sidelines will finally list.

The result? More sales volume, as homeowners re-enter the market. But since each new seller is also a buyer, the net effect on home values will likely be a wash, meaning stable prices, but more movement.

💡 If you’ve been holding off, now may be the time to plan your move before the market heats back up.

📞 Let’s talk strategy for your home in today’s shifting market.

Patrick Chamberlin
Owner & Broker
Diamondback Real Estate
520-345-4947

May Market Update

What a difference a month makes. We saw interest rate increase from the high 6's at the end of March to the mid 7's at the end of April. This was caused by the realization that the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut the Fed Rate this year due to continued strong job reports, and inflation staying at the 3% level. The increase in interest rates tanked buyer demand in Tucson. Here is what we saw change in the last month:

- Inventory increase 21%
- Accepted Offers decreased 12.5%
- New Listings increased 11.2%
- 11.8% more homes on the market
- Went from 4.3% more buyers than sellers, to 21.8% more sellers than buyers. (Usually don't see more sellers until Sept/Oct)
- My Heat Index went from 52 (Good to Sell) to -2 (Not a good time to sell)

Good News: Rates are slowly starting to come back down. Self correcting from the over-reaction last month. Hopefully, this continues, and the market gets back to where it was in March.

- If you have any questions about buying or selling your home. Or just need honest, pressure free real estate advice, give me a call at 520-345-4947

If you were thinking about buying a house in 1972, but decided to wait until interest rates came down...you would have continued renting and waiting for 22 years! 🤯
In that time...
😅 A home purchased in 1972 would have quadrupled in value
🫠 A mortgage from 1972 would be 73% paid off
😔 And a 22 year wait only saved 3 quarters of a % in interest!

In 1972 an average rate was 7.54%, and there wasn't a drop until 1993! And even then it was brief and only dropped to 6.74%. Yikes!

What's crazy is that in that 22 year wait, the rates crept up to 16% in the 80s! The average home value in ’72 was $27k, and by ’93 it was $126k.

Anyone is welcome to play the waiting game, but a person who waited in 1972 clearly missed out.

History proves that home values in the long run will continue to increase in value, and history also proves that interest rates should not stop you from becoming a homeowner. Refinancing is an option if interest rates go down. But you can't go back in time and buy a home at a 1972 price.

- Patrick