Metropolitan Bank

Is the conflict in Iran and the recent tariff policies hurting the U.S. economy? Not yet.

May nonfarm payroll growth came in stronger than expected, with 172,000 jobs added, while the unemployment rate remained low at 4.3%. Although 1Q2026 GDP growth was revised downward to an annualized rate of 1.6%, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee remains concerned about inflation.

As a result, we do not expect the Fed to cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate at its next meeting on June 17, 2026, nor do we anticipate rate cuts during the remainder of 2026 or 2027. In fact, the Fed could raise rates later in 2026 if inflationary pressures persist.