Corey Ecton - Nature Untamed

29260411 // 2142CDT

*** Severe Weather Update ***

…Degraded severe weather threat still exists for Sunday through Wednesday…

Good evening.

Trends for severe weather have been monitored since this past Monday. Which severe weather potential still exists for the period, the nature of the risk has become more conditional as the ejecting trough is not projected to remain as defined as it was earlier this week.

This does inject some conditionality into the forecast and changes the complexion of what once looked to have a sustained, widespread upper-echelon severe weather potential. This is precisely why situations such as this should be monitored prior to using alarming verbiage.

Sunday across the central and southern Plains is quite conditional owing to a substantial corridor of precipitation expected across Oklahoma overnight into the early hours of Sunday morning. Subsidence behind the precipitation is expected to linger in place, but the duration and intensity of which is unclear. Should the atmosphere recover in timely fashion later in the day Sunday, a severe weather threat could materialize in western Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards would be possible with this activity.

Monday’s severe weather potential looks even more conditional across the southern Plains, where a substantial cap is expected to persist. Relatively weak forcing appears to be catalyst. Most areas will not see any precipitation, however, should storms manage to develop, they would likely become severe, capable of all hazards.

Tuesday’s threat has a bit more suitability as the main trough ejects out of the Four Corners region, enhancing the forcing across the region. Despite this, the dryline boundary still appears to remain a bit diffuse, and wind profiles are marginally-supportive for a wider-scale severe weather event. Wednesday has a similar setup before the trough ejects north and east, ushering in a temporary respite from the humidity and severe weather potential before flow becomes southwesterly later in the week in advance of the next synoptic trough.

While the southern Plains are mentioned here, it is important to note that a secondary corridor supportive of severe weather will likely exist Tuesday across the upper Midwest close to the warm front.

While the outcome has become more opaque through the period, it should continue to be monitored. A reduction in severe weather potential is NOT an elimination of potential.

-Corey

20260409 // 1703CDT

*** Multi-Day Severe Weather Event ***

Good afternoon.

We are another day closer to a multi-day severe weather event which will commence on Saturday for the southern Plains.

Saturday will feature a predominant hail and wind threat across the Texas panhandle extending into west-central Texas with Sunday presenting a more conditional risk for the eastern Texas panhandle and western / central Oklahoma, reliant upon early day convection eroding and permitting the atmosphere to recover and destabilize. A lot remains in question today pertaining to this potential threat with more information likely as higher resolution data comes into view.

Monday and particularly Tuesday across the central and southern Plains look quite robust as the quality of airmass in place will be capable of fostering a higher-end all hazards severe weather event.

Tuesday at this point does appear to have all the contributing ingredients to yield a potentially remarkable severe weather event for a large corridor of the U.S. central and southern Plains extending into the middle and upper Mississippi valley regions. A potent trough will eject out of the Four Corners region during this timeframe and adequate moisture will take up residence in the threat area. Timing with this trough ejection has maintained a suitable aesthetic, suggesting the aforementioned potential of a higher-end severe weather threat exists.

Of course, there is NOTHING certain at this range and each day's severe weather scenario will have a co-dependency on how the previous day evolves. The only day that looks to have an exemption to this would be the Tuesday threat owing to a very favorable trough right exit region placement coupled within an upper-tier parameter space. This should be watched carefully as we progress through the period.

*** Key Takeaway ***

At this time, there is a lack of higher-quality / higher-resolution data. As we move forward through the period, the picture should become more clear, particularly the second half of this coming weekend. Now is a good time to review your severe weather safety plan should you reside in any of the aforementioned areas. Also, it is imperative to ensure you are receiving your weather-related information from a reliable source.

More to come....watching.

-Corey