Jason Smith FOX10
ARTHUR MODELS: Heavy rain will affect our area Thursday and Thursday night.
06/17/2026
Heavy Rain, Severe Weather Possible as Tropical System Moves Inland
STORMtracker Alert Day declared for Thursday as potential tropical cyclone threatens region with flooding, rough surf
A Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC #1) is being monitored off the Texas coast. The system may briefly develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Wednesday as it moves along and just offshore of the Texas coast before pushing inland.
The low pressure system will move into Louisiana on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, placing the Gulf Coast directly in its path. As the system interacts with a slow-moving front, residents can expect several days of heavy rainfall that will saturate the ground.
Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday with a 70% rain chance. While there will be brief breaks in the action, heavier rain is expected to move back in Wednesday night and continue into Thursday.
Thursday: Rain chances peak at 90% as the system moves through the region. The most intense rain bands are expected Thursday afternoon and evening, with some storms capable of producing brief spin-up tornadoes. Above-normal tides will bring minor coastal flooding in the 1 to 2-foot range. Rough surf conditions will persist all week, with wave heights reaching 5 to 7 feet Thursday — especially dangerous with wind gusts exceeding 20 mph.
Swimming is not advised. Some beaches may close as conditions deteriorate. Boaters should remain in port or seek shelter.
TROPICAL UPDATE: A tropical disturbance has a medium chance of developing in the western Gulf.
SURF FORECAST: Calmer conditions are expected over the next few days.
BEACHES: Rough surf continues, especially on Saturday.
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