Fortunerst Securities

Fed Governor Christopher Waller has expressed support for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting in late October 2025. He cites signs of weakening in the U.S. job market—even as inflation remains relatively stable. Waller also emphasized that larger cuts (for example, 50 bps) are off the table unless labor and inflation data deteriorate further.

Waller and Chair Jerome Powell view current economic indicators as mixed: strong growth and business investment in some sectors, but softening job demand and hiring. The governor’s position reflects a cautious pivot—prioritizing employment concerns while maintaining vigilance against inflation risks. Markets largely expect the Fed to act but are closely watching whether any shift in guidance reflects broader openness to stimulus or patience.

🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-favors-25-basis-point-rate-cut-october-amid-job-market-worries-2025-10-16/

Fed's Waller on board for an October rate cut, as Miran again presses for aggressive easing Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he favors another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month because of worrisome labor market developments, while a colleague again made the case for an even more aggressive path of cuts.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently addressed the state of U.S. monetary policy, reassuring markets that temporary fluctuations in the Fed’s net interest income do not constrain policy actions. He emphasized that the central bank remains fully capable of implementing measures to anchor inflation expectations and support employment objectives.
Powell highlighted that the Fed continues to monitor economic indicators closely, including inflation trends, labor market conditions, and financial stability. While challenges such as evolving market volatility and fiscal pressures persist, the central bank’s credibility remains intact. He stressed that proactive communication and flexibility are key tools for navigating potential economic headwinds.
The remarks aim to reinforce confidence among investors, businesses, and households that the Fed can maintain price stability and guide the economy through uncertain conditions. Powell’s emphasis on measured, data-driven policy suggests a steady approach to balancing growth, inflation, and employment targets.
🔗 Source: Federal Reserve – https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20251014a.htm

文案：
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy to 2.0%, citing stronger-than-expected consumer spending and corporate activity. While trade tensions and supply chain disruptions remain challenges, domestic demand has provided a stabilizing effect, helping the economy absorb external shocks.
The IMF highlighted that uncertainty in trade policy continues to affect business confidence and investment decisions. Companies are adjusting their strategies to manage tariffs and changing import-export dynamics, which could influence growth in certain sectors. Meanwhile, labor market conditions remain relatively robust, supporting household income and consumption.
Despite the upward revision, the IMF cautions that structural issues—such as regulatory shifts, potential fiscal imbalances, and global economic volatility—could limit growth in the medium term. Policymakers are encouraged to maintain supportive measures while preparing for potential external shocks to sustain the recovery.
🔗 Source: AP News – https://apnews.com/article/world-economy-imf-ac044f69806501a19ccc6234d25b4ca2

IMF more upbeat about US growth than just months ago, but outlook is dimmer than last year The U.S. and global economies will grow a bit more this year than previously forecast as the Trump administration’s tariffs have so far proved less disruptive than expected, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, though the full impact of those policies is still emerging.

Recent economic data shows a strong wave of investment across the United States, particularly in infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing sectors. Economists suggest this momentum could mark the start of a sustained growth cycle rather than a short-term rebound. Robust capital spending is being supported by favorable fiscal policies, business confidence, and ongoing consumer resilience.
However, analysts also caution that rising inflation pressures, supply chain disruptions, and a prolonged government shutdown could threaten the momentum. Daily economic losses from the shutdown are estimated to reach billions, dampening productivity and investor sentiment. The long-term outlook hinges on whether policymakers can maintain stability while supporting innovation and job creation.
If managed effectively, the current surge could lay the groundwork for a durable expansion—anchored by modernized infrastructure and digital transformation. But if external shocks persist or fiscal coordination weakens, the investment wave could lose steam, leading to uneven growth ahead.
🔗 Source: Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-investment-boom-is-sustainable-bessent-says-2025-10-15/