AlignX

Source: JPMorganmarkets.com

November 8, 2024

• The swift move lower in gold post-election ran counter to our expectations,
however, we think the sell-off is a stumble not a sea change.
• In our view, the sell-off was more driven by near-term position squaring
in a well subscribed pre-election trade rather than a break in our thesis
that a Republican sweep of government will likely continue to fuel further
upside for gold in 2025 as the debasement trade rumbles on.
• We expect to return to a pricing regime where gold continues to trade
higher with US rates as both assets concurrently price in US inflation and
fiscal concerns as the policy priorities of the administration come into
sharper focus in the coming months.
• Overall, we remain bullish on gold, seeing it as a good hedge over the early
stages of the new administration and continue to forecast gold prices rising
over the coming quarters towards a quarterly average of $2,850/oz in
4Q25.