SW Advisers

"Not So Bad"
Monday Morning OUTLOOK

"In terms of the official inflation reports, the popular
narrative has a point. Over time, inflation is a monetary
phenomenon, but in the very short term an oil price spike can
change measured inflation because consumers (and businesses)
dip into savings temporarily to spend more and the basket of
goods and services used to measure inflation doesn’t
immediately change."

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist, First Trust

www.ftportfolios.com

"Tariff Refunds Underway"
Three on Thursday

"Have importers actually received their money back, and what could the
refund process look like going forward? In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we examine the evolving state of tariff refunds and the potential implications ahead."

Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist, First Trust

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/5/21/tariff-refunds-underway

Monday Morning OUTLOOK

"To say the least, since its inception in 1913, the Federal
Reserve has had its ups and downs. One thing most people don’t
know is that prior to the invention of the Fed, other than during
wars, there was almost no inflation. Various sources including
the Federal Reserve regional banks show the purchasing power
of $1 in 1900 was the same as or higher than it was in 1800."

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist, First Trust

www.ftportfolios.com

"GDP: Mediocre Top-Line, Weaker Details"
Monday Morning OUTLOOK

"Add it all up, and we get a 2.0% annual real GDP growth
rate for the first quarter. Without government, annualized
growth would be around 1.1% in Q1 after 1.7% in Q4, which is
the epitome of mediocre growth."

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist, First Trust

www.ftportfolios.com