Ken Rell LLC

Outbound tender volumes continue to fall

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) fell 3.4% week-over-week (w/w). This is a meaningful decline, but shouldn’t be seen as a trend. Tender volumes are following the seasonal lull, but at a much higher level. Due to the high level of tender rejections, it is important to adjust OTVI to account for this. On a rejection-adjusted basis, tender volumes are up 23% year-over-year (y/y), up from 20% last week.

The pace of consumer spending slowed last week according to Bank of America card spending data, but remained quite strong. After posting a post-pandemic best 9.7% y/y growth rate last week, consumers reigned in spending and notched a 6% y/y growth rate in the latest week of data (ending Jan. 16).

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