Strategic Analysis Group

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most vital energy artery, carrying approximately 20-25% of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Is it a Trap for China?
The theory that this is a strategic "trap" to leverage China has significant weight for several reasons:

Energy Dependency: You are correct that China is the primary victim of this disruption. Roughly one-third of China's oil transits this Strait. Unlike the U.S., which is now a net energy exporter, China’s industrial engine is uniquely vulnerable to a Hormuz shutdown.

The "All or None" Strategy: Trump explicitly stated, "We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people they like... It’s going to be all or none." By blockading the Strait, the U.S. effectively forces China to choose: either pressure Tehran to accept U.S. terms (to restore oil flow) or face a domestic energy crisis.

Trump’s ‘China Trap’? The High-Stakes Blockade of Hormuz Strait o...