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Forex Today: Fed rate cut bets dominate the scene

29 May 2024, 22:01

The Greenback extended its recovery and printed fresh multi-day highs amidst the persistent move higher in US yields and shrinking bets of a Fed rate cut in September.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 30:

The USD Index (DXY) rose further and trespassed the key 105.00 barrier amidst multi-week tops in US yields. On May 30, another revision of the Q1 GDP Growth Rate is due, seconded by weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Goods Trade Balance, and Pending Home Sales. In addition, Fed’s Bostic, Williams, and Logan are due to speak.

EUR/USD traded well on the defensive and challenged the 1.0800 region despite the German flash CPI ticking higher in May.The EMU’s final Consumer Confidence, Economic and Industrial Sentiment and the Unemployment Rate will all be unveiled on May 30.

GBP/USD dropped to three-day lows and pierced the 1.2700 support on the back of the stronger Dollar. April’s Car Production will be the only release across the Channel on May 30.

Further gains in the Greenback and an extra advance in US yields prompted USD/JPY to climb to new highs around 157.70. In the Japanese calendar, the usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are expected on May 30.

AUD/USD added to Tuesday’s pullback and put the 0.6600 contention zone to the test against the backdrop of further bearishness hurting the risk-associated assets. On May 30, Building Permits are due along with the speech by RBA’s Hunter.

The persevering march north in the Dollar prompted WTI prices to halt a three-session positive streak and return to the $79.00 region.

Gold prices succumbed to the Greenback’s sharp advance and the robust performance of US yields across the curve, revisiting once again the vicinity of $2,330 per troy ounce. Silver prices clung to the upper end of the range, receding marginally to the $32.00 zone per ounce.

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Forex Today: Attention shifts to US PCE

28 May 2024, 22:14

The Greenback managed to regain some late traction and trimmed most of its daily losses amidst a decent bounce in US yields and diminishing expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in September.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 29:

The USD Index (DXY) rebounded from multi-day lows near 104.30 on the back of te strong comeback of US yields. On May 29, weekly Mortgage Applications are due seconded by the Fed’s Beige Book. In addition, Fed’s Williams is due to speak.

EUR/USD failed to sustain the early move to the vicinity of the 1.0900 region, eventually succumbing to the Dollar’s bounce. Germany’s Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK is expected on May 29 along with the flash Inflation Rate for the month of May.

GBP/USD retested the 1.2800 level for the first time since mid-March, although that move ran out of steam towards the end of the NA session. There are no data releases scheduled across the Channel on May 29.

The dollar’s late recovery and the decent bounce in US yields across the curve prompted USD/JPY to poke with multi-week tops beyond 157.00. IN Japan, the Consumer Confidence gauge will be released on May 29 seconded by the speech by BoJ Adachi.

AUD/USD ended Tuesday’s session with marginal losses after advancing to four-day highs near 0.6680. On May 29, the Westpac Leading Index is due along with the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator.

WTI prices rose further and surpassed the key $80.00 mark per barrel mainly on hopes that the OPEC+ would maintain its crude oil output cuts unchanged at the cartel’s meeting over the weekend.

Prices of Gold edged higher and broke above the $2,360 mark per troy ounce despite the bounce in the dollar and US yields, while prudence remained on the rise prior to the release of US PCE later in the week. Silver gathered extra pace and advanced for the third session in a row, this time surpassing the $32.00 mark per ounce.

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Forex Today: US Dollar shows its strength, RBA to keep rates unchanged

2 October 2023, 23:52

The key event in the Asian session will be the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Later in the day, Switzerland will report consumer inflation, and in the US, the JOLTS Job Openings data will be released.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 3:

The US Dollar opened the week on a strong note, resuming the rally that started on Friday. The US Dollar Index rose above 107.00, posting its highest daily close since November. Higher US yields, cautious market sentiment, and positive US data continue to support the Greenback's rally.

The US 10-year yield reached 4.70% for the first time since 2007. US data came in above expectations, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 49, surpassing the market consensus of 47.7. On Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings report is due. Later in the week, more US employment data will be released with the ADP report and the Nonfarm Payrolls.

Analysts at Wells Fargo on US data:

Manufacturing activity contracted at the slowest pace in nearly a year according to the September ISM. Recent data signal some relief in the sector, while higher oil prices point to potential upside risk ahead.

EUR/USD broke below 1.0500, reaching fresh year-to-date lows. The pair remains under pressure after sustaining the bearish trend. A potential support level lies around 1.0460. The strong US Dollar also weighed down GBP/USD, which broke below 1.2100, hitting three-month lows.

USD/JPY continues to gradually approach the 150.00 level amid higher yields. A break above 150.00 could trigger volatility and speculations about intervention from Japanese authorities.

AUD/USD extended its reversal from 0.6500 and dropped to 0.6360. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, with no change expected. This will be the first meeting with Michele Bullock as governor.

The kiwi fell versus the US Dollar; however, it outperformed the AUD and CAD. NZD/USD pulled back to 0.5950 after failing to hold above 0.6000 but remained above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

USD/CAD is back at September highs, slightly below the 1.3700 area, which is a key resistance level. A break higher would clear the way for more gains. Canada will report employment data on Friday.

Metals had another terrible day, with Gold falling more than $20 to $1,828, the lowest level since March, and Silver collapsing by more than 5% to $21.00. XAG/USD lost more than 10% from Friday's high.




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