Climate Change Coalition-3C

South Asian Monsoon Update and Prediction by SASCOF:

The ENSO is one of the global scale climate phenomena that have significant
influence on the year-to-year variability of the monsoon over South Asia. La Niña
conditions (colder than normal SSTs over the equatorial Pacific) were developed
during second part of the previous year, which peaked in November. However, La
Niña conditions over the equatorial Pacific started weakening in the early part of 2021
and conditions are now moving towards ENSO neutral conditions. Subsurface
temperatures over the equatorial Pacific have substantially warmed and atmospheric
patterns reflect neutral ENSO conditions. The latest global model forecasts indicate
further warming trends and ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail during the
upcoming monsoon season. ENSO neutral conditions are generally associated with normal southwest
monsoon over the region. However, in a few cases other regional factors such as
Indian Ocean conditions may play a more dominant role in influencing monsoon
performance............ it is
important to note that ENSO status is not the only factor that determines the
performance of Southwest monsoon over the region. Other relevant climate drivers
such as the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole, tropical Atlantic sea surface
temperatures, Eurasian land heating etc. are also important. The relative impact of all
these parameters needs to be considered to determine the expected state of the
monsoon over the region which are implicitly considered by the dynamical climate
models that underpin the present outlook.
http://rcc.imdpune.gov.in/ConsensusWin/consensus_statement_JJAS_2021.pdf