Cemmac BUAP

Hola a todos

Les recordamos nuestra cita de mañana para la cuarta sesión del Seminario Temático sobre COVID-19, "Moving From COVID-19 Mathematical Models to Vaccine Design: Theory, Practice and Experiences".

Título de la ponencia: Modelling epidemics: a perspective on mathematical models and its use in the present SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

Ponente:

- Dr. Jorge X. Velasco Hernández, Instituto de Matemáticas, UNAM-Juriquilla

Resumen de la ponencia: In this work we look at several mathematical models that have been constructed during the present pandemic to address different issues of importance to public health policies about epidemic scenarios and their causes. We start by briefly reviewing the most basic properties of the classic Kermack-McKendrick models and then proceed to look at some generalizations and their applications to contact structures, cocirculation of viral infections, growth patterns of epidemic curves, characterization of probability distributions and passage times necessary to parametrize the compartments that are added to the basic Kermack-McKendrick model. All of these examples revolve around the idea that a system of differential equations constructed for a specific epidemiological problem, has as central and main theoretical and conceptual support the epidemiological, medical and biological context that motivates its construction and analysis. Fitting differential models to data without a sound perspective on the biological feasibility of the mathematical model will provide a statistical significant fit but will also fall short of providing useful information for the management, mitigation and eventual control of the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2.

Fecha y hora: Viernes, 09 de abril a las 11:00 a.m.

Lugar: La ponencia será transmitida en vivo y compartida en la página de Facebook del CEMMAC, "Cemmac BUAP".

Los esperamos!!!