Fasttrack Finvest

STOCK MARKET UPDATES:09/04/2025

1. GIFT Nifty signals a positive start; Asian stocks trade lower and US markets falls.

2. In the last trading session, the Sensex was down 379.93 points at 73,847, and the Nifty was down 136.70 points at 22,399

3. Dollar index loiters around six-month lows; US CPI data in focus

4. India eyes trade pact push as US pauses reciprocal tariffs for 3 months

5. Home, auto loans turn cheaper after RBI cuts policy repo rate by 25 bps

6. TCS' net profit slips 1.26% QoQ in Q4 FY25; final dividend at Rs 30/shr

7. Biocon Biologics Gets USFDA Approval for Cancer Biosimilar - Jobevne

8. Deepak Nitrite announces Rs 3,500 crore major capex to boost supply chain

9. BHEL & Nuovo Pignone Partner for Compressor Revamp Projects in India

10. Gold climbs to $3,200 for first time as recession anxiety mounts

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IS FMCG STILL A DEFENSIVE SECTOR?

The fizzling out of urban consumption which contributes to 60% of revenue is a point that has weighed on the FMCG index to fall 20% in the last 6 months. It also seems unlikely that urban demand will rebound soon. This, coupled with margin pressure, has been prompting downward revisions in earnings estimates of large FMCG firms.

From FY10-19, Nifty FMCG index outperformed Nifty 50, aided by earnings growth. While from FYII-15, growth was in mid-teens with modest margin expansion, between FY16-20 there was a significant margin expansion even as revenue grew in mid-single digit. But, in the last 4-5 years neither revenue growth nor margin expansion has been anywhere close to being impressive. According to research firm Kantar, there

have been two sets of challenges for some of the big FMCG companies where the growth had curtailed. First, at the top, D2C brands have taken a share. At the bottom end, a lot of small regional players have taken a share.

There are expectations that tax relief in Budget 2025-26, coupled with interest rate cuts and easing retall inflation, will raise disposable incomes for urban consumers. However, this impact will be seen from Q2FY26. As for margins, input commodity prices are likely to remain elevated. Even after such a steep correction, the FMCG Index trades at P/E of 43.3 times, which is not cheap. Hence, we expect further earnings downgrades and multiple re-ratings, dragging the FMCG index lower moving forward.

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