EquityCompound2

18th October' 2022 (Evening) -- | Written at 11.00 PM |

I mentioned in my last notes, in spite of the fall on Friday, US markets may drive a positive sentiment. This subject to the critical levels being held. I also suggested to watch this on the US futures. It was beautifully respected on Monday. Tuesday was a follow up.
Taking cues from the US action, today also went on a buying spree and see the result. The were forced to cover more shorts.- The larger question is, now what?
Before that, the levels :-
After the move on Monday, the Indian Indices opened gap up today and also traded in a range. While this forced the to cover shorts, we also saw some resistance at today's highs.
Both the Indices on the futures side, saw short covering. Fresh longs are yet to be seen. Also the Indices have left a gap, this needs to be plugged. Also after a strong move from Friday till Monday, some traders may like to book some profits. We may thus see a bit of consolidation and a small dip till the first support above.
However, the price action is strong and till the first supports are held, we may see some more bullish action. The charts actually indicate a move up to 17900 on and 41700 on are very much possible. Will they breach the levels and take it to new highs? I cannot say that as of now.
today sold for a small amount and unwound a large number of shorts on Index futures. They also closed long puts and short puts, indicating a cautious stand, fearing some more momentum. Also fearing a small dip maybe. Though they haven't turned bullish yet.
Dollar Index, US yields, Oil prices are all stable at current levels. So no cues need to be taken from there.
India VIX has eased and is a good sign.
Sectorally, i see some stocks in giving a breakout. Though still is cranky.
In the IT index, and seem to be strong, though is stronger. I see some runway for Infy. may consolidate here.
With a strong and , may well get the required support to touch the levels I mentioned above. As we saw some critical levels of and are held, This time US may not give a negative surprise for to shock.
Well as of now, i see the Indices set for a good Pre Diwali rally, though do not go overboard to make aggressive positions. keep the position size under control.

27th September' 2022 (Evening) -- | Written at 6.00 AM on 28th Sep' 2022 |

Following some stability emerging in US on Mon, our Indices opened flattish on Tue, hoping for a recovery. However, after showing a flash of some green in the morning, the Indices could never capitalize on it through the day. While kept its ground, actually gave way and slipped to a negative close.
Both and made bearish candles on the daily chart. While was closer to the range of Monday, clearly made a candle with a lower low and a lower high compared to Monday.
Levels :
The levels above indicate a support coming in at 16900 levels for and 38150 for . Bulls yesterday defended their support at this level, While on this support may get tested soon.
It is extremely important for these levels to hold as they may other vise they trigger a deeper correction to the levels of Jun lows. While all this may not happen in one go.
In US there were some signs emerging yesterday of some support coming in, but the selling resumed fairly quickly and the indices lost ground again. This led to showing a sharp red opening today.
The US futures indicate some stability again today, so we may not open that bad as the was showing last night. I would watch the above levels in todays action, before any fresh change in view.
continue to sell in cash, They sold for 2800Cr again and created a huge number of fresh shorts on Index futures. Their positions on the options side were more or less same on call and put side. Though on Stock futures, they created longs and unwound a lot of shorts.
The options OI indicate support at 16900 and 38000 for and respectively, this is actually similar to the charts as well. Let us see today, if these levels are defended.
Dollar Index is at 114 plus now and is extremely strong causing ruckus in the global currency markets. With all major currencies globally falling, INR has been relatively stable. Though it is also now almost at 81.7 to a Dollar. Chances being that we may hit 82 to a Dollar.
The IT sector is gaining strength probably from currency. The INR depreciation may help the IT profitability. Though they still have to navigate to maintain their topline. With a steep correction from ATH, it actually gives an opportunity for some value buying. I have also put in some cash investments in the IT sector.
was going strong and some sharp move was expected, however, looks like the global selling has taken a toll on it as well. A sharp selling was seen from its multi year high lately. A good stock though and is a good buy now, till it holds 8560.
Oil continues to be at 85 USD and actually helps our markets. Though it continues to indicate growth concerns.
RBI MPC will declare its interest rate decision this week. Keep and eye on that on Friday. Before that the monthly closing on Thu will keep the markets volatile.