ThinkRational - Mathnal
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We are a Supply Chain Performance Improvement Consulting and Training Firm, believes to convert intuition in to logics through application or creation of data, mathematics and business strategies. For us every business strategy is an hypothesis and through which we like to generate business decisions with mathematical evidence of success or failures.
20/04/2026
Your supply chain KPIs are about to get destroyed.
Not might. Will.
I spent the last month analysing the 10 converging risks that will reshape global supply chains between 2026 and 2030 — and mapped their impact against 15 critical supply chain metrics.
The findings are sobering:
→ OTIF: 92–96% today → 72–85% under disruption
→ Inventory turns: halved
→ Cash-to-cash cycle: doubled
→ Freight costs: +25–80%
→ Lead time variability: 3x–5x worse
→ Forecast accuracy: dropping below 50%
And the scariest part? These risks are not independent.
They compound.
Geopolitics triggers chokepoint closure → lead times extend → safety stock inflates → warehouses overflow → carrying costs surge → cash-to-cash stretches → investment capacity shrinks → AI adoption delays → competitors widen the gap.
One disruption creates a cascade across all 15 KPIs.
The 10 risks I mapped:
🔴 Geopolitical fragmentation & tariff wars
🔴 Maritime chokepoint disruptions
🔴 Climate-driven extreme weather
🔴 Critical mineral & semiconductor shortages
🔴 Cyberattacks on logistics
🟡 Labour shortages & skills gaps
🟡 Energy volatility & grid failures
🟡 Infrastructure decay & port congestion
🟢 Regulatory & ESG compliance
🟢 AI disruption of planning
For each one, I have calculated:
• The probability (from High to Certain)
• The specific KPI degradation
• The cost implication
• The primary metric it destroys
Plus a 5-year timeline showing exactly when each risk peaks, and a 5-point resilience playbook for what to do about it.
This is not a 500-word opinion piece.
This is a 15-minute strategic briefing with data, benchmarks, and a full metric impact matrix that belongs on the wall of every S&OP room.
📰 Read the complete newsletter → www.mathnal.tech
(Head to the Newsletter section — Issue #3)
The question is no longer "What could go wrong?"
It is: "Which of these 10 risks should inform my next decision — and which KPIs will they destroy first?"
To read the full article visit our website https://lnkd.in/grmwjZD4
&OP
🚨 Most supply chain teams are still forecasting in Excel.
Meanwhile, Python can do in seconds what takes them days.
I wrote two books to change that.
📦 Supply Chain Optimization with Python
🔮 Forecasting & ML-Driven Supply Chain Planning
Here's what's inside 👇
✅ Demand forecasting using Prophet, ARIMA & XGBoost
✅ Inventory optimization with linear programming (PuLP)
✅ Transportation & network routing models
✅ End-to-end ML pipelines for procurement & planning
✅ 30+ ready-to-use Python notebooks
Whether you're a supply chain analyst, ops manager, or data scientist — these books will level up how you think and work.
🎯 Who is this for?
→ Supply chain & ops professionals tired of manual tools
→ Data scientists moving into supply chain roles
→ Students & researchers in logistics & SCM
→ Consultants building analytical capabilities
💡 Real datasets. Real case studies. Real results.
🔗 Link in comments to grab your copy.
24/02/2025
Finally we are launching our new batches on "Forecasting and Inventory Optimization" where you will learn forecasting 1000's of SKU;s in a parallel process using advanced excel and python in a step by step training methodology.
You will learn 50+ forecasting models like , , , and , , and many other models, including advanced inventory optimization techniques.
Discounts are available for a limited period till 10th march 2025, so grab the early bird offer to save your money.
For details, please contact us at [email protected] or WhatsApp us @ +91-7993651356 or visit our website www.mathnal.tech
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