Blue Crown Capital

Amira Solow Attorney & NotaryRebecca FranksYael 'Stemmer' PearlmanTamar HymanMoshe Cohen

Are you looking to purchase a property in Modiin??

Good chance you're also going to need to take a mortgage and bring over funds from abroad..

Join us next Friday (Sept 13) for our 7th annual "real estate" meet - discussing all aspects of the complicated process of buying a home in Israel..

Spaces are limited so please book qu**ky!!

2022 has come to an end and as we usher in the new year this is a perfect time to reflect on the past 12 months with specific focus on the current economic climate, mortgage interest rates and the performance of the Shekel vs basket of major currencies.

Inflation:
US (7.1%), Eurozone & UK (10%), Israel 5.3% saw multi-decade high inflation levels. The Fed began the party by indicating its willingness to fight inflation in the 1st quarter of the year after the Russia-Ukraine war saw oil and gas prices skyrocket and together with persisting supply chain issues, central banks realized that inflation was no longer transitionary but rather entrenched. The fed raised rates by 4% from near zero to the current rate of 4.25%. Israel raised rates by 3.65% and the prime rate is now at a whopping 5.25%.

Mortgages in Israel:
Mortgage rates had been at record lows during the covid period and prior. Average mortgage rates started the year at approx. 2.5% and ended the year close to 5%. Property prices have had a stellar year, rising by 20% at least and so existing borrowers, whilst suffering with higher repayments in the short term, have more than made up for it, with capital growth.

Shekel:
The NIS had been a runaway train over the past 5 years, strengthening vs almost every major currency. However, with US$ interest rates surging, the greenback has returned to its safe haven status and strengthened by over 10% year on year. The rate began the year at 3.11 and closed it out over 3.50 - although the past 2 weeks has seen it fall back to 3.4 range.

Outlook for 2023:

Whilst no one has a crystal ball and it is impossible to know the future, interest rates are most likely already close to peak highs and will hopefully stabilize and then begin to slowly come down towards the end of the year or early 2024. The US and Europe could enter a multi quarter recession, US home borrowers grappling with sky high mortgage repayments would then force the Fed to lower interest rates in order to avert a huge housing and mortgage default crises which would in turn allow countries like Israel to follow suit. The stock market would likely rebound when rates begin to fall, we could then have a yoyo period until the dust settles and everything stabilizes.

For existing mortgage holders, if one has spare cash that is just sitting in the bank, it might be time to think about paying down part of your variable (prime) component to lower your monthly’s. If one took out a mortgage in the past 6 months, for now there is not much one can do – but when rates do begin to fall, that would be the time to look at refinancing your fixed component and try locking it in at a lower rate.

Market volatility is always scary but after 10 fat years, we are now in the middle of a significant re-set, feel free to contact us at [email protected] for all your mortgage and foreign exchange related enquires.

Wishing all our friends and clients a shana tova