AR FOREX TRADE

USD/JPY: growth amid easing quarantine restrictions

Current trend

USD/JPY is declining against the background of the growing JPY, being at 113.64.
After 2 weeks of almost non-stop decline, JPY began a correction against USD. A positive trend is observed against the background of an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the Tokyo region, where the rate of new infections began to decline sharply amounting to 26 people yesterday. In this regard, the authorities decided to ease restrictions on the work of restaurants.
However, despite the positive data on morbidity, Japan's economic performance did not please investors. The Leading Economic Index continued to decline in August and amounted to –2.8% after –0.1% in July. The Coincident Index for the same period fell to –3.1% from –0.2% in July.
In turn, USD began a gradual decline after the Chair of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, said that the regulator may begin reducing the volume of the asset repurchase program in the near future, but raising rates is out of the question, since problems in the labor market still persist. Powell did not name any specific dates again, which caused a negative reaction from investors.

Support and resistance

USD/JPY is correcting downwards, trying to reach the resistance line of the global channel. Technical indicators are in a state of global buying, but they do not exclude a correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations began to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new descending bars.
Resistance levels: 114.40, 116.00.
Support levels: 113.20, 112.00.

AUD/USD: correction after decline at the end of the week

Current trend

AUD is showing corrective gains against USD, recovering from a moderate decline at the end of last week and preparing to test 0.7500 for a breakout; however, there are still few fundamental reasons for the instrument's growth.
Last week, the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, reiterated the regulator's commitment to a gradual tightening of monetary policy through a reduction in the quantitative easing (QE) program, which the Fed plans to fully complete by mid-2022. With regard to a potential increase in interest rates, the current inflation rate is significantly shortening the time frame, and there are no reasons for a slowdown in price growth so far.
Meanwhile, the activity of the US manufacturing sector, according to published data, is already starting to decline. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October fell from 60.7 to 59.2 points against the forecast at 60.3 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is trying to reverse upwards but preserves its previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing a more confident downtrend, still signaling in favor of the development of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.
To open new positions, it is necessary to wait for the trade signals to become clear.
Resistance levels: 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600, 0.7650.
Support levels: 0.7440, 0.7408, 0.7374, 0.7328.

Walt Disney Co.: wave analysis

The asset is in correction; the probability of fall is maintained.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) is developing, in which wave 1 of (5) has formed and a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (5). At the moment, wave a of 2 has been formed, the local correction is completed as wave b of 2 and the development of wave c of 2 has begun, in which wave (ii) of c ended. If the assumption is right, the fall of the price will continue to the levels of 155.16–140.83. The level of 180.24 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Short positions are relevant from corrections below the level of 180.24 with targets at 155.16–140.83. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 180.24 will help the shares continue growth to the levels of 202.98–220.00.