Forex Desk

🚨 U.S. INFLATION TEST LOOMS AS MARKETS FOCUS ON PCE, GDP & DURABLE GOODS

🔥 Today's Market Review

📅 Thursday, 25 June 2026

Markets enter a critical trading session with investors awaiting a wave of high-impact U.S. economic data that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. PCE inflation, Final Q1 GDP and Durable Goods Orders headline today's calendar as the U.S. dollar remains close to its highest level in more than a year, while commodities and cryptocurrencies continue to navigate a cautious risk environment.

📊 Market Overview

🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY)

The Dollar Index trades marginally lower at 101.57 after touching Wednesday's over-a-year high of 101.80. Despite the modest pullback, the greenback remains well supported ahead of today's inflation and growth releases.

US equity futures remain cautious following this week's technology-led volatility, with investors also digesting Micron's earnings released after Wednesday's market close.

💱 Forex Markets

🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD: 1.13651 (+0.06%)
The euro edges higher ahead of the ECB Economic Bulletin and remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD: 1.3179 (+0.13%)
Sterling posts modest gains as markets prepare for a busy U.S. macro session.

🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD: 0.68987 (-0.02%)
The Australian dollar remains under pressure amid continued demand for the U.S. dollar.

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: 161.752 (+0.01%)
The pair remains close to its 2026 highs, supported by broad dollar strength.

🥇 Precious Metals

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold rebounds from its lowest level since November 2025 to trade around $3,976. The precious metal continues to struggle below the key $4,000 psychological level ahead of the PCE inflation report.

🥈 Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver falls for a third consecutive session to $56.66 as expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy continue to weigh on precious metals. CME FedWatch currently prices September rate hike odds at approximately 70%, up sharply from 44% just one week ago.

🛢 Energy Markets

🛢 WTI Crude Oil: ~$69.55
🛢 Brent Crude Oil: ~$72.58

WTI crude remains under heavy selling pressure, falling 1.14% and trading close to levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues to ease supply concerns and pressure oil prices.

₿ Cryptocurrency Markets

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) trade modestly higher early Thursday but remain under broader pressure as higher expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy continue to limit upside momentum.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC): $61,611
Ξ Ethereum (ETH): $1,649
✕ XRP (XRP): $1.084

Bitcoin continues trading below its 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs, Ethereum remains capped beneath $1,700 despite defending key support, while XRP has broken below the $1.10 level with sellers maintaining near-term control.

👀 What Traders Should Watch Today

A data-heavy U.S. session takes centre stage, featuring the PCE Price Index, Final Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending and both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Investors will also monitor speeches from FOMC members Bowman and Williams, alongside the ECB Economic Bulletin and comments from Philip Lane.

📌 Market Expectations

🇺🇸 US Core PCE YoY
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.3%
MoM Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Persistent core inflation would reinforce a stronger U.S. dollar.

🇺🇸 US PCE YoY
Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 3.8%
MoM Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.4%
Higher inflation could strengthen expectations for further Fed tightening.

🇺🇸 US Core PCE Prices (Q1)
Forecast: 4.40% | Previous: 2.70%
A sharp increase would confirm ongoing inflation pressures.

🇺🇸 US GDP (Q1)
Forecast: 1.6% | Previous: 0.5%
GDP Price Index Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.7%
Markets will closely monitor any upward revision to economic growth.

🇺🇸 US Durable Goods Orders
Forecast: -5.0% | Previous: 7.9%
Core Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 1.1%
A significant slowdown is expected following April's aircraft-driven surge.

🇺🇸 US Personal Spending
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.5%
Solid consumer spending would continue supporting the U.S. dollar.

🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims
Forecast: 225K | Previous: 226K
Continuing Claims Forecast: 1,800K | Previous: 1,810K
Labour market resilience remains an important indicator for the Fed.

🇺🇸 FOMC Members Bowman & Williams
Any hawkish commentary may further support the dollar and Treasury yields.

🕛 Key Events (GMT)

🇪🇺 ECB Economic Bulletin (08:00)
🇪🇺 ECB's Lane Speaks (10:00)
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices (Q1) (12:30)
🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (12:30)
🇺🇸 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (12:30)
🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30)
🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Personal Spending (MoM) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (12:45)
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks (19:40)
🇺🇸 Fed's Balance Sheet (20:30)

💹 Stay tuned & Trade safe!

⚠️ Disclaimer: Prices, market movements, and analysis reflect conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice.
Forex Desk News is a financial media and educational brand. We are not a forex broker, financial institution, or investment advisory service. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

🚨 DOLLAR HITS NEW HIGH AS TRADERS BRACE FOR KEY U.S. DATA

🔥 Today's Market Review

📅 Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Financial markets enter the U.S. session with the dollar firmly in control, commodities under pressure and traders preparing for a series of high-impact economic releases. Housing data, banking sector health and central bank commentary will all play an important role in shaping market direction during the remainder of the day.

📈 Market Overview

🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY)
The greenback remains the dominant market theme, with the Dollar Index holding at a fresh 13-month high of 101.49 after three consecutive days of gains.

US equity futures are attempting to recover after Tuesday's technology-driven selloff, which saw the S&P 500 lose 1.4% and the Nasdaq drop 3.3%.

💱 Forex Markets

🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD: 1.13667 (-0.14%)
The euro weakens as traders continue to favour the U.S. dollar.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD: 1.3194 (-0.05%)
Sterling edges lower ahead of remarks from BoE policymaker Huw Pill.

🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD: 0.69137 (-0.04%)
The Aussie remains pressured amid cautious market sentiment.

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: 161.583 (+0.06%)
The pair continues to climb as dollar demand remains strong.

🥇 Metals Market

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold extends its recent decline, reaching a near two-week low around $4,075 as the stronger dollar reduces investor appetite.

🥈 Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver briefly touched a six-month low before stabilising near $61.89, reflecting continued pressure across precious metals.

🛢 Oil Market

WTI Crude: ~$72.55
Brent Crude: ~$76.34

Crude prices remain soft after touching fresh three-month lows. Improving supply expectations and reduced geopolitical risk continue to limit upside momentum.

₿ Cryptocurrency Market

Digital assets remain on the defensive despite signs of stabilisation.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC): $62,719
Ξ Ethereum (ETH): $1,671
✕ XRP (XRP): $1.101

Bitcoin trades modestly higher, but broader market sentiment remains cautious as traders monitor whether the recent correction is complete.

🎯 What Matters Today

🇺🇸 Current Account
🇺🇸 Building Permits
🇺🇸 New Home Sales
🇺🇸 Fed Bank Stress Test Results
🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
🇨🇦 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks

📊 Market Expectations

🇺🇸 Current Account Q1
Forecast: -212.0B | Previous: -190.7B

🇺🇸 Building Permits
Forecast: 1.413M | Previous: 1.423M

🇺🇸 New Home Sales
Forecast: 638K | Previous: 622K

🇺🇸 Fed Bank Stress Test Results
Key focus: Bank resilience, capital ratios and payout implications.

🇬🇧 BoE's Pill
Potential GBP catalyst depending on policy tone.

🇨🇦 BoC's Rogers
Markets will monitor any guidance regarding inflation and future rate expectations.

🕛 Economic Calendar (GMT)

🇨🇦 BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks (11:15)
🇺🇸 Current Account (Q1) (12:30)
🇺🇸 Building Permits (May) (12:30)
🇺🇸 New Home Sales (May) (14:00)
🇺🇸 New Home Sales (MoM) (May) (14:00)
🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks (16:30)
🇺🇸 Fed Bank Stress Test Results (20:00)

📌 Stay alert. Stay strategic. Follow the markets.
Forex Desk News

⚠️ Disclaimer: Prices, market movements, and analysis reflect conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice.
Forex Desk News is a financial media and educational brand. We are not a forex broker, financial institution, or investment advisory service. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.