Simon Rodriguez Real Estate

As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% in March — the third straight hold since October. Prime remains at 4.45%.

Beyond that… it’s honestly a bit of a grind to find “new” things to say about the GTA real estate market right now.
Not because nothing is happening —
but because everything is happening slowly.

A lot of the pressure isn’t even coming from real estate itself:
⛽ gas prices
📈 inflation
💸 cost of living
❓ and the big one… uncertainty

All of it impacting the biggest driver of any market: confidence.
📊 Here’s the current snapshot:
• Spring sales are starting to pick up (as expected)
• Prices are still softer year-over-year
• Inventory has started to come down
• Buyers remain cautious, even with sellers adjusting

So what does that leave us with?
Not a boom.
Not a crash.
Just… a market finding its footing.
And honestly, that’s not a bad thing. A reset in expectations can lead to a healthier, more sustainable market.
Because even when things feel flat, there are always opportunities — they’re just not always obvious.

February 2026 was snowy and cold — much like January. ❄️ The two months were also very similar when it comes to GTA real estate numbers, with the overall trend continuing downward across the region.

As always, the story changes when you look at neighbourhood-specific micro and macro markets. I will say that early March has already shown some signs of spring market activity, even in the condo segment, largely due to sellers pricing closer to current market expectations. More on that next month.

To add some perspective:
📊 Total home sales in 2025 were down 11% from 2024 across all TRREB regions and property types.
Even more notable — 2025 recorded the lowest number of annual home sales since the year 2000.

That brings us to a word we’ve all become familiar with: volatility. Not just in real estate, but across the global economy.

Remember that fixed mortgage rates are tied to bond yields, which also influence the direction of the Bank of Canada. With bond markets moving around, mortgage rates can move with them.

If you’re thinking about buying, getting pre-approved now is important. A pre-approval allows you to lock in a competitive rate that won’t increase if rates rise, while still allowing you to benefit if rates move lower.

If you’ve been sitting on the fence, this might be the time to start making an informed decision.

Oh January — always so humbling ❄️

While we broke the one-day snowfall record this month, the record for total January snowfall still belongs to 1999 — when Toronto saw 155 cm of snow and famously called in the Canadian military to clear the streets. I love snow, but I’m not sad to see January go… mostly because we’re one step closer to spring — and in the short term, Family Day.

From a real estate perspective, January delivered a fairly solid start to the year — not exciting, but balanced.
📊 GTA Freehold Market | January 2026 (TRREB)
• 3,082 total sales, down ~19% year-over-year
• 10,774 new listings, down ~13% from January 2025
• MLS® HPI Composite down ~8% year-over-year
• Average selling price: $973,289, roughly 6.5% lower than last January

Compared to December 2025, both sales and prices edged slightly lower — typical of the seasonal slowdown after year-end.

While these figures reflect the GTA market overall, freehold homes (detached, semi-detached, and townhomes) have generally held up better than condos, supported by continued lifestyle-driven demand in many neighbourhoods.
And staying consistent with a familiar GTA real estate theme as of late: inventory remains elevated and days on market are longer — signs of a more balanced environment where buyers aren’t rushed and sellers need to price and present thoughtfully.

So yes, January felt calm… maybe even a little boring.
But boring is often the baseline we build from as we head toward the spring market.

Not a lot has changed in the GTA real estate market over the past few months — and honestly, that says a lot. No major swings. No dramatic headlines. The market has been… a little boring. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Zooming out (before diving into micro and neighbourhood-specific trends), a new year is a good time to set a baseline for where things stand.

⬇️ Here’s the current snapshot:

🏡 GTA Freehold Market
• Inventory is up ~40–50% year-over-year, giving buyers more choice and leverage
• Detached and semi-detached homes remain the most resilient
• Well-priced homes are still selling, but buyers are taking more time
• Average GTA sale price sits around $1.05M–$1.06M — stable, not accelerating

🏢 Condo Market
• Firmly a buyer’s market
• Elevated inventory and longer days on market
• Pricing pressure remains, especially in investor-heavy buildings
• Condos now make up ~58% of Toronto’s total inventory — lots of choice for buyers and renters

💰 Rates, Mortgages & Bonds
• Bank of Canada overnight rate: ~2.25% (after ~75 bps of cuts)
• 5-year fixed mortgage rates: high-3% range
• Variable rates: slightly lower, depending on profile
• 5-year Government of Canada bond yields: ~3%
The result? Softer pricing and more predictable borrowing costs — which has brought confidence back for many buyers who were previously on the sidelines.

We’ll keep watching how things evolve month by month. While the broader mood may feel cautious, one thing hasn’t changed: people will continue to buy, sell, and lease real estate.