HAMILTON DAVIS

The Federal Budget has confirmed major changes to property investing.

From 1 July 2027:
• Negative gearing will be limited to new builds
• The 50% CGT discount will be replaced with a new indexation system
• Existing investment properties purchased before tonight’s announcement will be grandfathered

The Government’s goal is clear — push more investor money into new housing supply.

For Queensland, the impact could be significant.

SEQ is already battling low vacancy rates, rising rents and strong population growth. While the policy may reduce competition for some buyers, it could also discourage investment in established rental housing across Brisbane, the Gold Coast and regional Queensland.

That matters because many renters don’t live in brand new estates. They rent established homes close to jobs, schools, transport and lifestyle hubs.

The real housing challenge in Queensland isn’t just investor demand — it’s a lack of supply where people actually need to live.

If supply doesn’t improve fast enough, the risk is simple:
less investor activity, tighter rental markets and even more pressure on rents.

There’s a lot of talk about the Queensland market “cooling.”

Across Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Logan, that’s not quite how it’s playing out.

Things have slowed a touch. Buyers are more measured, and price growth isn’t what it was. But this isn’t a market finding its feet — it’s a market struggling to produce new supply.

The issue isn’t demand. It’s the ability to deliver stock.

Construction is still tight. Trades are stretched, build costs remain high, and many projects just aren’t stacking up the way they used to. We’re seeing delays, reshaping of projects, and in some cases, sites sitting idle.

At the same time, demand hasn’t gone anywhere.

SEQ continues to absorb population growth, with Logan in particular picking up a lot of that demand due to relative affordability.

So the imbalance remains:

→ not enough new stock
→ steady demand underneath
→ rising replacement costs

Slower growth doesn’t mean affordability is improving.

Until supply genuinely increases, Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Logan remain structurally tight markets.

HAMILTON DAVIS Luke Davis