Voice For Liberty

HOW BAD COULD A SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY GET?

The Economist examines the potential implications of a second Trump presidency, highlighting his aggressive campaign promises and the risks they might pose to democracy and U.S. institutions. Despite some Americans dismissing Trump’s intense rhetoric as showmanship, the article notes that Trump’s loyalist base and established agenda could give him greater power to act on his promises than in his first term. His aims include mass deportations, a dramatic increase in tariffs, and a potential clampdown on Democratic-led policies. This shift, the article suggests, could significantly damage American democracy, institutions, and the economy.

Economic impacts loom large. Trump plans drastic tariffs, tax cuts, and mass deportations, moves that economists warn could worsen inflation and reduce GDP growth. For example, JPMorgan Chase estimates Trump’s proposed tariffs could cut GDP by 0.5% in a year and raise inflation by 1.5 to 2%. Furthermore, Trump’s potential interventions with the Federal Reserve could destabilize financial markets, hurting the economy more than his 2017 tax cuts helped. Mass deportations would strain industries reliant on immigrant labor and could lead to inflation in sectors such as agriculture and construction.

Trump’s foreign policy also raises concerns. His unpredictable approach and “America First” doctrine may destabilize alliances and incite global uncertainty. Prominent figures like Kori Schake at the American Enterprise Institute warn that allies could face a “chaos premium” under Trump’s leadership, fearing an American pivot away from NATO and possible abandonment of Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Concerns over democracy are central to the article. Trump has previously tried to overturn the 2020 election results, and he remains unapologetic about his actions. His comments labeling January 6th rioters as “political prisoners” and his potential plans to pardon them raise concerns over his respect for rule of law. Experts like Benjamin Wittes of *Lawfare* argue that without the moderating “grown-ups” of his first term, Trump would likely act more autocratically, bending federal powers and potentially pushing the Justice Department to target political opponents. His use of Schedule F, allowing for easier dismissal of civil servants, could also politicize traditionally neutral federal agencies.

While some analysts believe that American institutions might contain Trump’s impulses, the risks are substantial. Political scientists note that populist leaders often fail to establish authoritarian regimes, especially in democracies with strong institutions. However, Trump’s past rhetoric and actions suggest that another term could further erode democratic norms, possibly normalizing selective enforcement of laws.

The article concludes that although some Americans dismiss Democrats’ concerns as partisan exaggeration, voting for Trump carries substantial risks for U.S. democracy, the economy, and global stability.

"How bad could a second Trump presidency get?" *The Economist*, 31 Oct. 2024.

How bad could a second Trump presidency get? The damage to America’s economy, institutions and the world would be huge

70% OF RACES ON THE BALLOT THIS NOVEMBER ARE UNCONTESTED, UP FROM 2020

A new report from BallotReady reveals that an unprecedented 70% of races in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections are uncontested, showing a stark increase across all levels of government compared to previous election cycles. This report, presented ahead of November’s election, details that uncontested races have spiked, especially in regional and local offices.

While uncontested federal races, such as those for Congress, now exceed 5%—the highest rate in recent years—state-level races have also seen a jump, with nearly 48% going uncontested. In 2020, for comparison, 41% of state races were uncontested, underscoring this upward trend. BallotReady attributes part of this growth to expanded research into local elections, but the data ultimately points to a lack of competition as a national issue.

Local governments are where the lack of choice is most evident, with roughly 90% of regional positions, like district attorney roles, and 74% of other local offices, including school boards, having only one or no candidate. This lack of candidates means fewer choices for voters and limited options for political representation, leaving millions without real competition in races critical to local governance.

Guminski, Sarah. “70% of Races on the Ballot This November Are Uncontested, up from 2020.” *BallotReady for Organizations*, 30 Oct. 2024,

70% of races on the ballot this November are uncontested, up from 2020 — BallotReady for Organizations See a preview of uncontested races on the ballot this November as provided by the BallotReady Research team.