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Energy security also means securing supply chains. Renewables have their own chokepoints, but in this case its minerals rather than oil.
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The Iran War has shown the vulnerability from relying heavily on fossil fuels produced in some of the most volatile parts of the world. This will only reinforce the trend toward more investment in renewable energy.
Subscribe for analysis on foreign policy, energy, and the forces shaping the world. If you want to support this work directly, Current History is also on Substack. Every essay and podcast delivered to your inbox. Free to start, with a Founding Member plan that guarantees lifetime access without a paywall.
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04/24/2026
🚨New post on the energy and Iran (link in comments)🚨
The Iran war accelerated the push toward renewables. The minerals required to build them are refined overwhelmingly in China.
The Iran war shut down one of the world's most critical energy corridors. The response from policymakers was immediate: accelerate the renewable transition. Solar and wind can't be blockaded. The security case and the economic case now point in the same direction. But solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries are manufactured from minerals. China refines 19 of 20 critical minerals at an average market share of 70%.
There is currently no heavy rare-earth separation capacity in the United States at meaningful scale. China has already demonstrated willingness to weaponize that position through escalating export controls.
The dependencies are not equivalent. Oil gets consumed. Every barrel burned requires a new one through the same routes indefinitely. Minerals go into infrastructure that runs for decades and can be partially recovered through recycling. The mineral problem has a ceiling. Oil dependency does not.
The transition does not eliminate strategic exposure. It relocates it.
Explaining Iran’s incentives to negotiate in my latest quick take (link in comments).
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