A Beautiful Numbers Game

Here's my Forbes latest that focuses on the Mexican national team, and quantifies their struggles in 2013.

Mexican National Team Ends Forgettable 2013 With Berth In 2014 World Cup This year’s Hex was to be a continuation of a growing series of successes for the Mexican men's national team reaching back to the last World Cup. They won the Gold Cup and U-17 World Cup in 2011, finished third in the 2011 U-20 World Cup, went undefeated on the [...]

Updated MLS playoff likelihoods.

Sounders Lose Ground In Supporters' Shield Race While Columbus And San Jose Keep Their Playoff... It was another week of MLS action with a number of important results. A few teams who had to win at home to keep their flagging playoff hopes alive didn’t– Chicago, New England, Vancouver, Dallas – while a few teams picked up vital points on the road – Real Salt [...]

In 2012/13 Newcastle United did the expected and regressed to the mean that their 2011/12 goal differential should have produced. Last year United and Spurs were the two clubs that most outperformed their goal differentials, so who is the most likely to regress this season and what has the play through the first six matches told us about both teams?

Manchester United Or Tottenham Hotspur - Who Is More Likely To Be The Newcastle United Of 2013/14? Last season Newcastle United completed one of the worst season-to-season point total drops in the history of the Premier League. The Toon finished the 2011/12 season in fifth place with 65 points from a +5 goal difference, which meant they were going to have make a number of changes in [...]

My latest examining goal scoring records and what they mean for Champions League qualification over the last three Premier League seasons. Turns out Spurs have been far luckier than Arsenal if one goes by goal differential.

Premier League Goal Differences Indicate Tottenham's 2010/11 Through 2012/13 Table Positions... Earlier this week this blog posted an article explaining how Manchester United’s and Tottenham Hotspur’s goal differences helped explain further how the Premier League table lies to us. The article explained how point totals should vary with goal differential, how both United and Tottenham overachie...

Here's another statistical look at how the EPL table lies to us, and one way to understand what clubs' relative performance actually look like inter terms of possible table positions.

Manchester United's And Tottenham Hotspur's Goal Differentials Demonstrate How The EPL Table... About a month ago this blog explained how luck has played a significant role in Arsenal’s last three Champions League qualifications, and how Tottenham may have been equally penalized by bad luck in not qualifying for any of the last three Champions League tournaments. That analysis raised a number...

Another weekend of MLS action, so it's time for another update as to forecasted playoff likelihoods. See who improved their chances, and those who are on the outside looking in.

Sounders Move Towards Supporters' Shield While Timbers And Dynamo Make Their Case For Playoff... It is late-September, which means we’ve reached the run-in of the MLS season. Most teams only have four or five matches left to make their case for the MLS playoffs. In the East only six points separate third from seventh, while a similar gap separates third from eighth in the [...]

Here is where I explain why an absence of goals is a good thing as it keeps us on our statistical toes and makes us appreciate it when superstar players or clubs achieve the rare.

Why The Premier League's Lack Of Goals Through Matchday 4 Was A Good Thing It seems as if the overriding media narrative on the English Premier League is that it is now boring. Long feted for its high spending teams and relatively good performance in European competitions in the Aughts, a number of reporters and publications have turned their sights to the likes of [...]