Meteorologist Michael Crowley

Meteorologist Michael Crowley

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05/11/2026

Gotta say. This forecast model, the HRRR, absolutely nailed this forecast.

The latest model guidance is starting to show a bit more action ahead of the front than the previous runs had. This could mean more trouble for Central Texas. This front is expected to be a quick-mover. Thunderstorms ramp up tonight with severe weather and then we're winding down not long after the clock strikes midnight, so I was expecting a flooding threat. However, this is something I noticed yesterday as well. If we get quite a lot of pre-frontal thunderstorms like this model is forecasting we could see some much higher accumulations.

We're still on track for tonight's thunderstorms and I'm watching the latest model guidance closely this evening and will bring you more updates and forecasts when I get new info.

05/11/2026

Well, things are finally starting to wind down for tonight. Austin has been trimmed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and now all we have are the occasional rolling thunder to fall asleep to and beautiful flashes of lightning crawling across the sky for miles. But almost 16,000 people are spending their night in the dark due to strong straight line winds.

Austin Bergstrom: 64 mph
Georgetown: 64 mph
Fredericksburg: 45 mph
Pflugerville: 39 mph
Austin Camp Mabry: 38 mph

05/11/2026

Now THAT's a squall line! A 62 mile per hour wind gust at Austin Bergstrom tonight immediately followed by almost 2 inches of rainfall in just 1 hour!

We're calming down across the I-35 corridor, with just a few more significant storms left in Fayette county and Lee County. What a busy night!

05/11/2026

8:53 PM - Zeroing in on Travis County/Austin for a moment.

There are currently FOUR different outflow boundaries (mini cold fronts of rain-cooled air) all converging over Travis County. Don't be surprised to see storms develop very quickly right overhead as these boundaries collide.

This could locally ramp up our heavy rain potential with a localized flood threat ahead of the main line moving in from the northwest. Severe weather (pockets of large hail/damaging wind gusts) still a concern.

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