Meteorology Mythbusters
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The goal of this page is to educate the public on the behind-the-scenes information behind the daily forecasts that impact each and every one of us.
06/29/2026
SEVERE WEATHER for today, June 29:
There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather across northeastern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and into parts of Minnesota. A surrounding slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather extends into much of the northern Plains and upper midwest. A small complex of storms has already produced wind gusts between 100 to 130 mph earlier this morning across South Dakota and is currently tracking into Minnesota, which has weakened a bit since.
This afternoon into the evening, a very unstable airmass with daytime heating and dewpoints into the 70s will create explosive storm fuel. The ejecting negatively tilted trough (simply a trough-oriented northwest to southeast; which is the well-known trough orientation for more robust severe weather indicating a mature cyclone) will provide wind energy upstairs for those tall thunderstorms to feel those rotating winds. Coupled with very rapid temperature decreases with height and strengthening low-level winds through the evening, robust scattered severe storms are possible with destructive severe winds, large hail of 2 inches in diameter or greater, and a couple of tornadoes.
Additional storm development north of the boundary in North Dakota will likely produce large hail and damaging winds while storms may not initiate until the early evening across northeastern South Dakota into eastern Minnesota due to a layer of warm air a mile above the surface. Once that warm layer erodes, explosive storm development is possible while initially discrete posing a risk for a few tornadoes, will quickly turn into a line posing more of a destructive wind threat. Stay safe everyone and make sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts.
A dangerous heatwave through the 4th of July weekend as a dome of high-pressure sits over the Eastern United States. Storms may ride the periphery of the dome, which many meteorologists call "The Ring of Fire" pattern where storms take advantage of that moisture and instability. Underneath the dome, we could see high temperatures in the 90s to near 100 in some locations with little relief overnight as low temperatures drop to the 70s and 80s.
While it is summer and it's supposed to be hot, these temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees above average and factoring in high humidity levels adds stress to the body to cool down. The more humid it is, the more the body is unable to cool off through sweat, which is what makes it dangerous if not taken with caution.
Make sure to drink plenty of fluids, stay in a cool place with air conditioning if applicable, take frequent breaks in the shade if outside, limit outdoor and strenuous activity, wear light-colored and loose fit clothing, and wear sunscreen if outside by the pool or beach. Look before you lock as cars heat up significantly more than outside, so don't leave pets and children unattended in a car. Stay cool out there!
06/27/2026
Here are our Key Messages for Saturday (6/27).
06/27/2026
A large-scale trough will eject out from the west creating ascent for severe thunderstorms to develop across the Northern Central Plains today and later progress eastward into the upper Midwest by the end of the weekend into Monday. This will overspread a warm, moist unstable airmass in the wake of the ejecting trough. Any training showers and storms over the same location may risk locations for heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered flash flooding.
TODAY... An enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) is set up over eastern Montana into western North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota followed by a slight risk (level 2 of 5) extending south into Nebraska. Initially, discrete supercells are possible with a large hail risk of up to baseballs and a couple of weak tornadoes. However, wide temperature-dewpoint spreads and quick upscale growth will likely keep the tornado threat on the lower side. Into the evening, clusters and lines of storms are likely posing a risk for hurricane force winds (74+ mph) with isolated wind gusts between 80 to 100 mph.
SUNDAY... Showers and storms may modulate the afternoon setup as it determines where the surface boundary sets up for storms to initiate. Modest mid-level flow, however, paves way for uncertainty on whether storms initiate or not. However, should storms develop, moderate storm fuel in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates, rapid change in temperature with height, would pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds.
MONDAY... A shortwave trough is expected to eject into the Northern Central Plains and upper Midwest, but the timing of it is uncertain. Significant storms may be possible under a moist, unstable airmass with deep layer wind shear, change in winds speed and direction with height. However, this is rather conditional with uncertainty on whether storms initiate.
Scattered severe development is unfortunately possible again in southern and Southern Indiana with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Damaging winds are possible with a few IF a supercell is able to form. Morning storms and cloud cover poses uncertainty in atmosphere recovery, but a residual boundary from morning storms could fire a few clusters of storms. Elsewhere, a trough coming in from the west will pose a risk for a few high-based supercells with large hail and damaging winds especially in Montana with a slight risk for severe weather. More isolated coverage is expected south this afternoon through the evening.
Keep in mind there is a risk for excessive rainfall along the stalled boundary for a potential 2-4+ inches of rainfall across the lower Ohio Valley. Make sure to turn around and don't drown!
💬See excessive rainfall and severe weather outlooks in the comments down below.
06/26/2026
A robust fire weather pattern is expected to unfold across an expansive portion of the Intermountain West starting on Friday (6/26) and continuing through early next week. Mid-week dry thunderstorm activity will be followed by exceptionally dry and windy conditions, promoting significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the Southwest and Great Basin. Click here for the latest forecast details: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/overview.html
06/26/2026
Weather has its own rulebook. Know the calls!
🟨 Watch = Get ready. Dangerous weather is possible.
🟥 Warning = Take action now! Dangerous weather is happening.
Knowing the difference can save your life.
The eastern United States is about to become the Amazon rain forest starting this weekend and possibly through the 4th of July. Temperatures could reach the 90s to near 100, but with dewpoints possibly in the mid to even upper-70s, heat indices could reach up to 110+ in some locations; especially across the corn belt across the midwest. Last week we talked about heat indices, which measure feels like temperatures in the shade.
However, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is an index that measures heat stress in direct sunlight, which is especially important for outdoor workers and athletes. When humidity sky rockets, it adds stress on our body to keep cool. When the WBGT sky rockets, it takes more work for our bodies to cool, which is important to limit outdoor activity and any strenuous activity in the extreme heat and take frequent water breaks in the shade.
Stay cool out there in the coming week!
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