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Falanqeyn Juqraafi-Siyaasadeed: Venezuela Sida Bilowga Dagaal Tamareed Caalami ah

Arrinta Venezuela ma aha dhacdo gooni ah oo ku kooban siyaasadda gudaha ee dalkaas ama Madaxweyne Maduro oo keliya. Marka si juqraafi-siyaasadeed (geopolitics) loo eego, waxa muuqata in Venezuela ay noqotay albaabka laga furayo loollan tamareed caalami ah oo si toos ah u saameynaya Shiinaha, Mareykanka, iyo awoodaha kale ee waaweyn.

Marka h**e, Venezuela waa keyd shidaal oo aad u weyn, gaar ahaan marka laga hadlayo saliidda culus (heavy crude). Shidaalkan, inkasta oo farsamo ahaan adag, haddana wuxuu ahaa mid Shiinuhu ku tiirsanaa sannado badan, sababtoo ah waa jaban oo lagu heli karo heshiisyo siyaasadeed. Sidaas darteed, tallaabo kasta oo Mareykanku ku xakameeyo ama ku carqaladeeyo wax-soo-saarka iyo dhoofinta shidaalka Venezuela, si dadban ayay u saameyneysaa badbaadada tamareed ee Shiinaha.

Marka labaad, istaraatiijiyadda Mareykanka ma istaagto Venezuela oo keliya. Nigeria, oo ah mid ka mid ah soo-saareyaasha shidaalka ugu waaweyn Afrika, ayaa iyaduna leh muhiimad gaar ah. Haddii Nigeria si buuxda ugu soo dhowaato xulafada Galbeedka, waxay taasi hoos u dhigaysaa fursadaha Shiinaha ee helitaanka shidaal jaban oo ka yimaada Afrika. Tani waxay qayb ka tahay istiraatiijiyad ballaaran oo ah in la adkeeyo marinada sahayda tamarta ee Shiinaha.

Marka saddexaad, marinnada badda ayaa noqday laf-dhabarta loollankan. Bab al-Mandab waa marin muhiim ah oo isku xira Badda Cas iyo Badweynta Hindiya, halka Marinka Hormuz uu yahay halbowlaha ugu weyn ee dhoofinta shidaalka Khaliijka. Haddii marinnadan ay galaan gacanta ama saameynta xulafada Mareykanka (ama ay noqdaan meelaha cadaadis lagu saaro), Shiinaha wuxuu wajahaa khatar ah in ganacsigiisa iyo tamartiisa la carqaladeeyo xilli kasta.

Mareykanka, marka la isku daro:
awoodda uu u leeyahay inuu saameeyo shidaalka,
xukunka ama kormeerka marinnada badda,
iyo awoodda uu ku leeyahay ganacsiga caalamiga ah,
wuxuu helayaa waxa loo yaqaan “xasaanad istiraatiiji ah” — awood uu ku cadaadiyo cadowgiisa isaga oo aan si toos ah dagaal militari u gelin.

Gebogabadii, Venezuela looma arki karo bartilmaameed k**a dambeys ah, balse waa tijaabadii ugu horreysay ee lagu hubinayo sida dagaal tamareed caalami ah u shaqeyn karo. Haddii istiraatiijiyaddan ay guulaysato, mustaqbalka waxa la filan karaa in loollanka u dhexeeya quwadaha waaweyn uu u wareego shidaal, marin-biyood, iyo sahay dhaqaale, halkii uu si toos ah uga noqon lahaa dagaal hubaysan. Taasi waxay ka dhigan tahay in dagaalka weyn ee soo socda uusan noqon doonin mid rasaas lagu rido, balse mid tamarta iyo dhaqaalaha lagu go’aamiyo.