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Though likely to burn up on its way down, a 5,000 pound European Space Agency (ESA) satellite is predicted to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday, February 21. It is possible that pieces of ERS-2, which was launched in 1995, could reach the face of the Earth, but are expected to fall into the ocean if any make it through the atmospheric layer.

The satellite was decommissioned in 2011 and taken out of orbit by the ESA, who opted for a 7.5-hour window of uncertainty rather than leaving it forever orbiting the planet with loads of other space junk.

The unpredictability of the satellite’s natural reentry is largely driven by a limited ability to forecast the density of the relevant layers of Earth’s atmosphere, ESA says. The annual risk of a person being hit by space debris is under 1 in 100 billion. The ESA will be providing live updates on the satellite’s reentry on Wednesday.