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22/10/2023
🆕 Predictions 004: https://predictions.substack.com/p/004-robin-hanson-is-right
1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23
2️⃣ Diving into Robin Hanson's vision for Prediction Markets
3️⃣ The NYTimes covers PMs and Manifold Markets
& more
07/06/2023
🆕 How Diplomats Get Away with Murder: What is Diplomatic Immunity? https://youtu.be/zMUhIgoj_W4
How Diplomats Get Away with Murder In 2019, the world was shocked by the tragic case of Harry Dunn, a British teenager killed in a road accident. The suspect? Anne Sacoolas, wife of a U.S. dip...
What are Private Military Companies? 🪖
🪖 Private Military Companies are playing an ever-increasing role in modern warfare.
They fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine, protect mines in Africa, became a major part of the US’s occupation of Iraq and seem to be playing an ever greater role in the increasingly murky world of warfare - what exactly are Private Military Companies (PMCs)? Being a mercenary is one of the world’s oldest professions, but the origins of the modern PMC can be traced back to a group of ex-SAS veterans, who, in 1965, founded a company called WatchGuard International. A dramatic growth of PMCs occurred after the end of the cold war in the early 90s, with falling military budgets and an exodus of over 6 million personnel from national militaries being some of the main driving factors. Since then governments of all calibres worldwide have used PMCs for different tasks, including in anti-piracy efforts off the Horn of Africa, operational support in Iraq, and in kinetic conflicts such as that in Yemen. Some of the most well-known companies include the notorious Blackwater, now called Academi, founded by Erik Prince, to the Russian Wagner Group. PMCs provide a degree of separation between governments and conflicts which is politically favourable, allowing for plausible deniability, and their use can only be expected to increase.
🇺🇦➡️🇷🇺 | In a speech at a signing ceremony in on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that residents of the , , , and regions of were "becoming our citizens forever" - annexing those territories into Russia.
Find out more here ⬇️.
💥| Things have been heating up across the post-Soviet Space in recent weeks.
🔺Russia has declared a partial mobilisation - calling up an extra 300,000 troops so far.
🔺Border clashes have occurred between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and also Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
More here ⬇️
Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the partial mobilisation of Russian reservists 🇷🇺
Find out more about what that could mean here ⬇️
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