Ascolta

The destruction of old traditions and the foundations of the old world always occurs with the release of a large amount of energy, which is transformed into wars, coups, conflicts, crises, and other cataclysms. Recently, FBI Director Christopher Wray said: “These are unique times. “I have never in my career seen a situation where all or very many threats increased simultaneously.” Several generations of politicians in the West have become accustomed to life

in relatively comfortable, conflict-free conditions, in a demoliberal world with an even career and a calm old age, with the understanding that the biggest disaster in their lives could be another economic crisis, and the nuclear threat is something from the category of “fairy tales for the uninitiated.” The world of procedures and institutions, speculation and hypocrisy, obviously impossible agreements, futures, indices, Bilderberg clubs, Davos, vanity fairs, and idle talk about “the open society and its enemies” collapsed. Just as the world of Art Nouveau pretentiousness collapsed in 1914, forcing one to change tailcoats to a gray military uniform, and as the world collapsed in 1939, dividing the world into “before” and “after,” rewiring the brains and killing humanity the cult of a strong personality and the cult of will.

In 2023, several significant trends emerged that will dominate over the coming years and develop in subsequent years.

In this report, Ascolta analysts identify the main trends for 2023, which may directly impact further developments in the world.

Read final analytical report:
https://www.ascolta.org/?p=5407

Russia: Weekly Report (18.09-24.09)

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

- Next year, the Russian authorities plan to increase federal spending on the country’s defence. Costs for these purposes will increase from 3.9% in 2023 to 6% in 2024. In this context, the internal struggle between the main influence groups around Putin, responsible for the military-industrial complex and defence, is becoming increasingly noticeable. Soon, we can expect that conflicts between Shoigu and Zolotov will not only become public but also that contradictions between other actors in this area will intensify.

- Wang Yi’s visit to Russia confirmed Putin’s plans to visit Beijing in October. Issues related to further steps towards integrating Belarus and Russia and the prospects for the negotiation process on the war in Ukraine may be resolved there. On the eve of his visit to Moscow, Wang Yi met with Advisor to President Biden Sullivan in Malta, where issues of resolving the situation surrounding the war between Russia and Ukraine were also discussed. It is quite possible that after Putin visits Beijing (which will be a mirror image of Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to Washington), the general contours of an agreement on a peace plan that would satisfy all parties and beneficiaries of the conflict can be developed.

- Despite the demonstration of Sergei Lavrov’s very vigorous activity on the sidelines of the UN, the head of the Foreign Ministry practically did not voice any new theses. However, Russia hinted at the possibility of conducting negotiations regarding Ukraine and even returning to the topic of the territorial integrity of Ukraine - in the event of progress on the issue of the neutral status of Ukraine and guarantees of its non-entry into NATO structures. Of course, such hints should not be taken as a new condition for negotiations. Instead, it is a demonstration of capabilities rather than a statement of readiness.

This digest highlights the following topics that were most relevant for Russia during 18th – 24th of September:

1. Meeting of the Russian Military-Industrial Commission;
2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Wang Yi;
3. Telephone conversations between Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev;
4. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation;
5. Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Iran;
6. Participation of Sergei Lavrov in the UN General Assembly;
7. Attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Earlier, Ascolta published a detailed political portrait of Yevgeny Prigozhin
ascolta.org/?p=3468

🇲🇩 Between the west and Russia: who is rocking the situation in Moldova?

In fact, for many years, Moldova has been a thing of interest to four parties: 🇷🇴 Romania, which takes an active part in the internal politics of Moldova (Maia Sandu, Natalia Gavrilitsa, and several other high-ranking officials and politicians in Moldova have Romanian citizenship); 🇹🇷 Turkey, which actively supports the Gagauz Christian Turks living in the southern regions of Moldova (in 2020, Turkey financed the restoration of the presidential palace in Chisinau, which was damaged due to protests); 🇺🇸 the United States, which is trying in every possible way to neutralise Russia’s influence in this region and secure maximum control over the Balkan region; as well as 🇷🇺 Russia, which does not want to lose influence either on Moldova itself or on a number of processes in the region, actively using energy blackmail and the Transnistrian factor.

Ascolta analyzes the situation in Moldova and identifies the main threats to its destabilization.

Read more in our material: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=2422

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🇲🇩 Між заходом та Росією: хто розгойдує ситуацію в Молдові?

По суті, протягом багатьох років Молдова є об'єктом інтересів чотирьох сторін: 🇷🇴 Румунії, яка бере активну участь у внутрішній політиці Молдови (Майа Санду, Наталія Гаврилиця та низка інших високопосадовців і політиків у Молдові мають румунське громадянство); 🇹🇷 Туреччини, яка активно підтримує гагаузів – турків-християн, які проживають у південних регіонах Молдови (у 2020 році Туреччина фінансувала відновлення президентського палацу в Кишиневі, який постраждав унаслідок протестів); 🇺🇸 США, які всіляко намагаються нівелювати вплив Росії в даному регіоні та забезпечити собі максимальний контроль над регіоном Балкани; а також 🇷🇺 Росії, яка не хоче втрачати впливу ні на саму Молдову, ні на низку процесів у регіоні, активно застосовуючи енергетичний шантаж та фактор Придністров'я.

Ascolta аналізує ситуацію в Молдові та визначає основні загрози для її дестабілізації.

Детальніше читайте у нашому матеріалі: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=2468&lang=uk